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- Bitcoin reaching key support zone.
- Ethereum appears to want a rally but lacking conviction on the USD and BTC pair.
After 26 days, Bitcoin decided to make a move – many were expecting a bounce, but this proved to be premature. On Wednesday, BTC/USD fell through its range support at the $7800 zone, finding a new local bottom at $7308. The 200-week moving average was acting as support for this range until the price fell through it, indicating buyer exhaustion.
From a macro perspective, this drop can still be considered a healthy pullback. The market is yet to decide its new intermediate bottom, though price won’t likely venture too far down – at least in the short-term – as it would first have to absorb substantial buy-side liquidity. Firstly, around the $7250 mark, there is support from the bullish trendline and the bull flag’s lower range, acting as strong demand zones. Secondly, the 50-week moving average confluence and previous range top at $6760 act as a second support area.
However, plunging through these two liquidity pools would signal bearish control that the market is not yet ready to move upwards. So keep an eye on the weekly close: if the price pulls back above the 100 weeks moving average, then it could have just been a fake-out.
Since the intermediate-high at $366, ETH/USD has corrected 58%. Currently, the price is sitting in a falling wedge without any strong signs of life and relatively low volume compared to Q1 and Q2 of this year.
It appears ETH/USD has printed 3 swing-failure patterns dipping below the $155 support area, so keep an eye out if it reclaims the previous range bottom at $169, indicating bullish interest. Ideally, however, the price would have to break and consolidate above the descending wedge’s resistance line to signal bullish continuation.
ETH/BTC has been on a steady downtrend since its all-time high in Q1 2018, although now it appears poised for a reversal. If the trendline support holds and the price breaks above the range resistance at 0.02222, the market could reach for the 0.02516 area.
However, if support doesn’t hold, bullish risk-averse traders should set their bids at the 0.01885 support area: the main demand zone.
In summary, look for confirmation in BTC and ETH price action before executing a trade!