Countries Where Prediction Markets Are Banned Or Restricted

Glenn Nasta

@glennnasta

KalshiPolymarketPrediction Markets

Prediction markets let users trade contracts tied to future events. A market might ask whether a political candidate will win, whether a central bank will cut rates, whether a sports team will win, whether inflation will land above a threshold, or whether a crypto asset will hit a price level by a deadline. Users usually buy “yes” or “no” positions, and the final payout depends on the outcome.

That simple structure creates a difficult legal question. Some jurisdictions treat these products as gambling because users are staking money on uncertain future events. Others treat them as derivatives, swaps, binary options, securities, financial contracts, or a hybrid product that does not fit cleanly into older rules. Crypto-based platforms add another layer because settlement may use stablecoins, smart contracts, offshore entities, wallets, and cross-border access.

The result is not one global rule. Real-money prediction markets may be legal in one country only through a licensed exchange, blocked in another as unlicensed gambling, restricted by platform policy in a third, and unclear in a fourth. Users should also separate a platform’s geoblocking list from national law. A platform can block a country because of sanctions, AML policy, licensing risk, gambling rules, financial regulation, or business preference.

This guide focuses on real-money prediction markets such as Polymarket, Kalshi-style event contracts, and similar platforms. It does not cover free forecasting games, research-only prediction tools, private polls, fantasy-style communities without cash settlement, or traditional sportsbook products already regulated as gambling.

The Main Legal Categories

Prediction market restrictions usually fall into five categories.

The first is unlicensed gambling. This is the most common route. If a country sees event contracts as betting on uncertain outcomes, platforms need a gambling licence. Offshore platforms without that licence may be blocked, blacklisted, fined, or ordered to leave.

The second is derivatives regulation. In the United States, event contracts can fall under commodity derivatives rules. The CFTC framework for event contracts treats many event contracts as swaps, which means a platform may need to operate through a regulated exchange structure. The earlier CFTC action against Polymarket is a useful example of how an event-market product can be treated as an unregistered derivatives facility rather than a normal crypto app.

The third is sanctions and AML risk. Some countries are blocked because major platforms cannot legally or safely serve users in sanctioned or high-risk jurisdictions.

The fourth is consumer protection. Regulators worry that prediction markets can look like investing while carrying gambling-like loss patterns, 24/7 access, viral social pressure, and fast-moving odds.

The fifth is market integrity. Political, military, sports, court, weather, and government-event markets can create insider-information risk. A person with non-public information may be able to profit before an event becomes public.

Crypto users already deal with jurisdiction risk across exchanges, wallets, taxes, staking products, stablecoins, and DeFi access. A broader understanding of crypto privacy and compliance helps explain why the same crypto product can be treated differently depending on location, identity checks, custody, settlement, and user protection rules.

Countries With Confirmed Bans, Blocks, Or Clear Illegality Positions

The countries below have either blocked prediction market platforms, classified them as illegal or unlicensed gambling, or taken direct enforcement action against major operators. The list is strongest where a regulator, court, or government action targeted prediction-market access directly.

This is the strongest practical ban list for users. It is still not permanent. Legal positions can change quickly if a platform obtains a licence, changes product design, limits market categories, partners with a regulated exchange, or wins a court case.

Countries And Regions Restricted By Major Platforms

Major prediction-market platforms also publish country restrictions. These lists are not identical to national ban lists, but they are important because they determine whether users can open positions, place orders, or access the platform.

Polymarket’s geographic restrictions block or restrict order placement in the following countries and regions:

Kalshi has a broader restricted-jurisdiction list in its member agreement. The list includes Afghanistan, Algeria, Angola, Australia, Belarus, Belgium, Bolivia, Bulgaria, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Canada, Central African Republic, Côte d’Ivoire, Cuba, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, France, Haiti, Hungary, Iran, Iraq, Ireland, Italy, Kenya, Laos, Lebanon, Libya, Mali, Monaco, Mozambique, Myanmar, Namibia, New Zealand, Nicaragua, Niger, North Korea, China, Poland, Portugal, Russia, Singapore, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Switzerland, Syria, Taiwan, Thailand, Ukraine, United Arab Emirates, United Kingdom, Venezuela, Yemen, Zimbabwe, and any jurisdiction subject to comprehensive sanctions.

That broader list does not mean every one of those countries has passed a prediction-market-specific ban. It means Kalshi does not permit users located or domiciled there to trade under its current platform policy and legal-risk framework.

Countries With Restricted Access But Not A Simple Ban

Some countries should not be described as fully banning prediction markets because regulated versions may exist, limited product categories may be allowed, or local law is still being tested.

The United States is the clearest example. Prediction markets are not banned nationwide when they operate through a regulated derivatives exchange. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated designated contract market. Polymarket’s earlier U.S. access was restricted after the 2022 CFTC settlement, while later U.S. market access has depended on regulated structures and ongoing federal-state conflict. Several states have challenged event contracts as gambling, while federal derivatives regulation can point in a different direction.

Canada is another mixed case. Some forecast-style contracts can operate through regulated securities and derivatives channels, but unregistered operators face restrictions. Ontario is blocked by Polymarket, and Kalshi’s member agreement lists Canada as restricted.

The United Kingdom is not a clean “ban” in the abstract. The practical barrier is licensing. A business letting people bet on events such as politics, sports, financial trends, or other outcomes would generally need gambling authorization, and offshore platforms without the right permission face access risk.

Ireland appears in Kalshi’s restricted list and has active public debate around prediction markets, but it should be treated as restricted rather than clearly prediction-market-banned unless a local operator, product, and regulatory action are being evaluated.

Italy, Japan, Taiwan, Thailand, and the United Arab Emirates also need careful wording. Platform access is restricted or close-only in several of these places, but the exact reason can involve gambling law, financial regulation, sanctions screening, product design, or platform policy rather than a single statute named “prediction market ban.”

Why Regulators Push Back Against Prediction Markets

Prediction markets create several concerns at once.

First, they can look like investing while behaving like betting. A user sees a contract price, liquidity, chart, order book, and probability, which can feel closer to trading than gambling. The economic result is still simple: a wrong outcome can mean a total loss on the position.

Second, event markets can create addiction loops. Markets run around the clock, odds move constantly, and social media turns every major election, war headline, court case, sports injury, or central bank speech into a trading opportunity. That design overlaps with the behavioral risks already familiar from crypto trading and online gambling.

Third, insider information can matter. A person with privileged access to a court decision, military action, election process, corporate announcement, sports injury, weather intervention, or government policy may have a financial incentive to trade before the public knows. That market-integrity concern is one reason event contracts are receiving more attention from regulators and lawmakers.

Fourth, crypto settlement can weaken local enforcement. If a platform settles in stablecoins and users connect from wallets, regulators may worry about age checks, affordability controls, source-of-funds checks, taxation, AML screening, chargeback protection, and responsible gambling tools. Stablecoins are increasingly useful across digital platforms, but stablecoin payment rails also make cross-border financial apps easier to access than older bank-based products.

Fifth, product categories matter. Economic indicators may be easier to frame as derivatives. Sports, elections, court rulings, military events, celebrity events, and tragedy-linked markets are more likely to trigger gambling, integrity, manipulation, or public-policy objections.

Practical Checks Before Using A Prediction Market

A user should not start with the platform’s marketing. The first check is local eligibility. If a country or region is blocked, using a VPN can violate platform terms and may create legal, tax, withdrawal, or account-freeze risk.

The second check is licensing. Is the platform operating through a regulated exchange, gambling licence, securities/derivatives permission, or offshore access model? A regulated exchange is not the same thing as a crypto website with charts.

The third check is market category. A platform may be permitted to offer economic event contracts but not sports, elections, online games, or political outcomes. Brazil’s 2026 restrictions show how regulators may allow derivatives tied to economic benchmarks while blocking contracts tied to politics, sport, culture, and social events.

The fourth check is settlement and custody. Users should understand whether funds sit with a regulated intermediary, a smart contract, a wallet, a clearinghouse, a stablecoin balance, or a platform-controlled account. Wallet-connected products carry the same self-custody risks found across DeFi, so a basic crypto wallet safety checklist remains relevant.

The fifth check is tax and reporting. Profits from event contracts may be treated differently from gambling wins, trading gains, derivatives income, or crypto disposals depending on residence and product structure. Country choice matters across crypto activity more broadly, and crypto tax jurisdiction rules should never be reduced to a simple “tax-free” headline.

The sixth check is scam risk. Prediction-market hype creates impersonation, fake links, phishing wallets, fake market pages, fake airdrops, and recovery scams. Users should treat unofficial links and “guaranteed edge” communities with the same caution used for common cryptocurrency scams.

Conclusion

Prediction markets are not banned everywhere, but real-money event markets face a growing wall of country-level restrictions. The clearest bans or blocks are concentrated in jurisdictions that treat prediction markets as unlicensed gambling, including Australia, France, Belgium, Poland, Singapore, Romania, Portugal, the Netherlands, Brazil, New Zealand, Argentina, Colombia, Switzerland, and several other European and Asia-Pacific markets.

Platform restriction lists are broader than legal ban lists. Polymarket and Kalshi block many countries because of sanctions, AML obligations, local gambling law, derivatives regulation, licensing risk, and internal policy. A blocked country should be treated as unavailable even if the local legal position is more complicated than a formal prediction-market ban.

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The safest rule is simple: real-money prediction markets are local-law products, not borderless crypto games. Users should check country access, platform licensing, market category, tax treatment, custody model, and withdrawal rules before trading. A market that looks like a clean probability tool in one jurisdiction can be treated as illegal betting in another.